When I say that the SpaceX IPO resembles the biggest “shitcoin” in history, I don’t mean it because it is literally a crypto. I mean it because it con...
When I say that the SpaceX IPO resembles the biggest “shitcoin” in history, I don’t mean it because it is literally a crypto. I mean it because it concentrates many of the same ingredients: a messianic narrative, founder worship, future promises that are impossible to value, massive retail demand, and a structure designed so that the public provides the money while control remains in the hands of the usual insiders.
And I’m not talking about opinion alone. I’m talking about facts.
SpaceX filed its S-1 with the SEC on May 20, 2026, and an S-1/A amendment on June 3. The European prospectus approved by BaFin states that the stock trades under the ticker SPCX and that trading on Nasdaq was scheduled for June 12, 2026.
But the important thing is not just that it is going public. The important thing is how it is going public.
After the offering, Class A shareholders—that is, those buying on the market—would hold around 11.5% of the voting power. Class B shareholders would retain roughly 88.5%. In other words: the public buys economic exposure, but not real control.
You provide the money. Others keep the power.
Then there is the “forced buying” aspect, which is worth explaining properly. It is not that there is a law directly requiring a citizen to buy SpaceX shares. But there can be an indirect mechanical obligation through passive funds, ETFs, pension plans, and indexed products if certain indices include the company.
Nasdaq modified its methodology to allow the rapid inclusion of large newly listed companies after 15 trading days. It also changed the treatment of stocks with low free float: instead of automatically excluding them for having a low float, a cap based on 3 times the float is applied.
Translated: the door is opened for a mega-IPO with little capital actually available on the market to enter certain indices sooner and generate automatic demand from products that track those indices.
No one forces you to buy SpaceX with a gun to your head. But if you hold an ETF, an index fund, or a pension plan exposed to those indices, you may end up financing the valuation without ever consciously deciding to buy SpaceX.
That is what is concerning.
And note: not every part of the system has yielded equally. S&P Dow Jones kept its rules and did not create a fast track into the S&P 500. That shows this is not a technical inevitability. It is a financial architecture decision.
There are also objective reasons to distrust the valuation. The prospectus itself acknowledges net losses of approximately $4.937 billion in 2025 and $4.276 billion in the first quarter of 2026 alone. It also warns that the company may fail to achieve or sustain profitability in the future.
That is not coming from a hater on Nostr. It is coming from the prospectus.
And the European prospectus also makes it clear that BaFin’s approval is not an endorsement of the company or of the quality of the shares. In other words, the fact that the document is approved does not mean the investment is good. It only means that it meets certain formal disclosure requirements.
The narrative, however, is something else: Mars, Starship, AI, orbital infrastructure, future abundance, a multiplanetary humanity. All wrapped around the figure of Musk, who at the same time says that money will not be necessary in the future, that there will be universal basic income or “universal high income,” and that technology will solve poverty.
The contradiction is obscene.
If money will not be necessary in the future, why the urgency to raise everyone’s money now?
If SpaceX is going to take us to Mars and usher in a new era of abundance, why does the public receive shares with only a tiny fraction of the voting power?
If the opportunity is so obvious, why is it structured in a way that insiders, founders, and major investors retain control while the risk is distributed among retail investors and passive funds?
You do not need to prove a conspiracy to see the problem. You only need to look at the incentives.
The early participants get in cheaply. Insiders keep the power. Large funds underwrite and distribute. Indices may generate automatic demand. Retail arrives at the end, paying a gigantic valuation for a promise 10, 20, or 30 years into the future.
And an epic story does not stop being a story when the public pays for admission and someone else keeps control.
One thing is admiring the rockets.
Something very different is paying the bill.
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