以英伟达为代表的半导体大幅低开，收盘价至少还得三个点涨幅才能保持上攻强势。

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      "A short note: 以英伟达为代表的半导体大幅低开，收盘价至少还得三个点涨幅才能保持上攻强势。\n\n在接下来连续重要财报即..."
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  "content": "以英伟达为代表的半导体大幅低开，收盘价至少还得三个点涨幅才能保持上攻强势。\n\n在接下来连续重要财报即将发布的档口，小概率有那么多热血资金冲进去赌财报。\n所以大概率做个头，要回下面震荡。\n\n如果确如预判，其实结构上会更健康持久。\n\n这波短炒摆明了快进快出的收割。\n跟风风险大于机遇，不跟就是垃圾时间。\n坐等起楼，宴客，塌楼。\n\n在当下有限资金在软硬件间跷跷板的当下。\n假使忍不住手痒就想短炒，甚至针对性赌财报，在未明确方向时提前低位布局软件，胜率稍微高些。\n\n以微软为例，赌财报的市场押注是425上下15大概率区间。\n就算不及预期，也是410，离破395转低位震荡还有15的安全垫。\n\n也就是即便小幅不及预期，也是大概率依旧右侧，无非多花点时间慢慢爬，真押错了不至于拍断腿。\n\n当然，没有紧密追踪，对目标标的不够熟悉的话，个人不建议赌财报。\n\n因为赌财报严格来说是一次下注两次赌局。\n第一次赌财报整体及关键数据表现是否符合预期。\n同时，第二次赌市场对该财报的情绪反应。\n\n全赌对才有赚钱机会，懂基本概率的就知道两次纯赌大概率赔。\n即便有足够实力确定第一次的胜率，第二次赌的胜率五五开概率更大。\n\n顺道多说一嘴:\n天朝别赌财报，别赌财报，别赌财报。\n重要的事情说三遍。\n\n再多提醒一个历史经验，2000年后，每次美联储主席换届，市场都邪乎得给下马威。\n\n虽然每次原因都不一样，但是次数多了，必然变成交易预期的一部分，而预期会自我实现。\n\n现在鲍威尔的指控已撤，新主席上任的障碍扫清。\n\n你猜，熟悉的剧情，会不会在太阳底下再次上演？\nhttps://files.sovbit.host/media/87e02be9ae3894742a3fedda2e6b33675b642800633ab8c7ac1a306f107ac81c/25c1a5f804e172a1cca0b06557f2f4b1f22d0e1123c2cf5bb293d8e1fa79f0c2.webp https://files.sovbit.host/media/87e02be9ae3894742a3fedda2e6b33675b642800633ab8c7ac1a306f107ac81c/a56640fa4632a47b62f1aa294855e7a133811c051ec0544a4d9721cd651be7db.webp",
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