2026-04-12 14:00 UTC | BLOCK 944746

CITADEL WIRE

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hex

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Kind-1 (TextNote)

2026-04-12T14:02:31Z

2026-04-12 14:00 UTC | BLOCK 944746

BITCOIN $70,921 | GOLD $4,682

  1. War formally unresolved, truce clock at 10 days -- Military action resolved at 99% but Trump formally ending operations priced at just 22%; no written ceasefire document exists per CNN. -- Verbal truce expires April 22; Hormuz at under 10 vessels/day versus 150 normal. Permanent deal before 2027 only 23%.

  2. IMF formalizes war damage as permanent, not cyclical -- Reuters: global growth forecasts cut and inflation projections raised on Iran war and tariff shock. -- Fifteen-firm credit default chain Goldman-to-Blue Owl, fractured repo market, and zero 2026 rate cuts all persist through ceasefire at oil $96.57.

  3. Densest policy gauntlet since war begins tomorrow -- Warsh Fed confirmation hearing April 13 as Powell term ends May; SEC CLARITY Act roundtable April 16; Fed, BOJ, BOC, ECB, BOE all decide rates April 28-30. -- Central bank leaderless during unresolved 43% cut vs. hike contradiction; defines monetary path for BTC $70,921.

  4. Physical oil market panicking beneath ceasefire calm -- Bloomberg: scramble for crude barrels as Hormuz functionally closed; Ras Laffan missile footage confirms Qatar LNG offline through 2031. -- Oil $96.57 pricing reopening that hasn't occurred; BlackRock April note prices permanent energy disruption via tanker-tracking data.

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