俄乌战争和美伊冲突的关键底层拆解。

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      "A short note: 俄乌战争和美伊冲突的关键底层拆解。\n\n1.技战术层面。\n二战模式的延续。\n\n二战德国装备的特色是高端..."
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      "https://二战后，美式高大上信息化，数字化。说白了，还是按德国模式继续高精尖叠甲。"
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      "https://1.技战术层面。"
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      "https://同时，相应的，也逼出了非对称对抗。如用廉价的无人机饱和打击。"
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    [
      "r",
      "https://4.极致的廉价耗材改变战争模式。"
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      "https://files.sovbit.host/media/87e02be9ae3894742a3fedda2e6b33675b642800633ab8c7ac1a306f107ac81c/54443294eb31cf055160b40c5653b2dd1361341da49c374e0a6a18d7c59649d8.webp"
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      "https://3.开战容易终战难，令战败国转向更难。"
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      "https://2.俄乌战争让各威权政体摸到了维持政治稳定的底线。"
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  "content": "俄乌战争和美伊冲突的关键底层拆解。\n\n1.技战术层面。\n二战模式的延续。\n\n二战德国装备的特色是高端，但耗工时。\n战术也是围绕技术装备长板，展开闪电战。\n\n苏联模式说白了就是用更廉价的装备，人力优势去填线，去硬耗。\n\n二战后，美式高大上信息化，数字化。说白了，还是按德国模式继续高精尖叠甲。\n\n最终的成效是，只要和对手技战术跨代碾压，就能达成斩首的战术效果和战略威慑。\n\n同时，相应的，也逼出了非对称对抗。如用廉价的无人机饱和打击。\n\n单价百万级的拦截导弹就算对百十来块的无人机，手搓飞弹100%完美拦截。\n这背后的经济账也是稳亏不赚。\n\n几架次还借机展示技术，能从军贸市场赚回来。\n多了就算备弹管够，也是体面人被拖进泥潭打滚，体面不再。\n\n美国当下就是这情况。\n捅马蜂窝容易，碾死几十上百只马蜂也不难，让已漫天飞舞的马蜂不乱蛰人，很难。\n\n有软肋，还在对手打击范围内，想要无顾忌得非对称碾压，条件上不允许。\n\n2.俄乌战争让各威权政体摸到了维持政治稳定的底线。\n\n都已上万卫星满天飞的时代，俄乌战场上还是战壕密布，炮灰用远程手雷（无人机）互耗。\n\n重回一战血肉磨坊模式。\n\n很容易就让人进一步联想到，一战是怎么结束的？\n\n追问之下，就看到俄罗斯务实的应对:\n\n农村低端人口，城市边缘人，想拿俄罗斯永居的外国人都送去填线，唯独城市良家子不能死太多，否则会乱。\n\n3.开战容易终战难，令战败国转向更难。\n\n伊朗难以评估是否会因为这次战争转向的根本原因在:\n现存体制，是其内部长久以来，各势力磨合对抗后形成的动态平衡。\n\n最高领袖集团仅是能掌控，影响国家权力的主利益集团明面代表。\n\n换代表，只动了表面。\n主利益集团才是根本。\n只有充分评估出该集团的实力受损程度，再结合和次利益集团的新平衡程度，才能评估是否会触发转向。\n\n4.极致的廉价耗材改变战争模式。\n\n这也是最讽刺的地方。\n曾让欧美闻风丧胆的钢铁洪流，现在不仅不敢大规模集中行动，单车都只敢悄咪咪摸上来，打了就跑，稍慢点就要被让人头皮发麻的无人机围观入体。\n\n真是一报还一报，打败魔法的还得是魔法。\n\n另一边的海峡也是，仅靠几架无人机神风特攻，就完成二战德国上百艘潜艇用狼群战术才能达成的战略级运输阻断。\n\n而且相比之下，这种战术更有回旋余地。\n潜艇还得把船打沉了，无人机只要炸到船，把船员吓下来，弃船搁那，就已达成战术目标。\n\n船还在，不是没了。\n谈判筹码和战后操作空间，就在不掀桌子的有限对抗中攒出来了。\n\n新武器层出不穷，新战术刷新认知，可拆解之下，底层还是一二战那三板斧。\n\n又是激光防空，又是ai精密计算指挥。\n看似突飞猛进的武器和战术，依旧是面对水滴时，换汤不换药的地球舰队。\n射再远的弓箭，终究是冷兵器，还不是装火药的热武器。\n\n未能完成真正的代差跨越。 https://files.sovbit.host/media/87e02be9ae3894742a3fedda2e6b33675b642800633ab8c7ac1a306f107ac81c/4e6feb6b881b70fc73bd767fb1bf08aa7396d56298a0611ea1fe7380d41cd9da.webp https://files.sovbit.host/media/87e02be9ae3894742a3fedda2e6b33675b642800633ab8c7ac1a306f107ac81c/456bc85452bbc2f6311943c3a637f993ff2a7ac67ecf8f2a23cc72821c5ffc88.webp https://files.sovbit.host/media/87e02be9ae3894742a3fedda2e6b33675b642800633ab8c7ac1a306f107ac81c/c0646483c65fa7e4f61d711bc84b5f9013e1e25f58a6834b9cb3e0209a5291e0.webp https://files.sovbit.host/media/87e02be9ae3894742a3fedda2e6b33675b642800633ab8c7ac1a306f107ac81c/54443294eb31cf055160b40c5653b2dd1361341da49c374e0a6a18d7c59649d8.webp",
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