阿联酋退出欧佩克

Raw JSON

{
  "kind": 1,
  "id": "d4987664961cf3d7b186dd371d9e52be483dde76b3fa92a715983d71895ebfbf",
  "pubkey": "87e02be9ae3894742a3fedda2e6b33675b642800633ab8c7ac1a306f107ac81c",
  "created_at": 1777427233,
  "tags": [
    [
      "alt",
      "A short note: 阿联酋退出欧佩克\n\n不禁感慨之前卖集装箱船，扫货油船的长锦商船又押对了，油运需求明确增量。\n\n行业深..."
    ],
    [
      "r",
      "https://files.sovbit.host/media/87e02be9ae3894742a3fedda2e6b33675b642800633ab8c7ac1a306f107ac81c/77ea4ac8c2d59c4a0e7460ea9c366440f737f6e2d2c865fa3cd5c314b32245a1.webp"
    ],
    [
      "r",
      "https://files.sovbit.host/media/87e02be9ae3894742a3fedda2e6b33675b642800633ab8c7ac1a306f107ac81c/7ea19ac0eefbc2aa6d4633abae6af1a48483148b84f155f9bd50363ebe6e007d.webp"
    ],
    [
      "r",
      "https://files.sovbit.host/media/87e02be9ae3894742a3fedda2e6b33675b642800633ab8c7ac1a306f107ac81c/7c94a5e41035e523fd39928e6b0cca5d399dc37a10c1420d34bb79c7252566bb.webp"
    ],
    [
      "r",
      "https://files.sovbit.host/media/87e02be9ae3894742a3fedda2e6b33675b642800633ab8c7ac1a306f107ac81c/5060dec190d473bc1fd72aabe0023bce71dc7c40334828a25da912d01c4cc622.webp"
    ],
    [
      "imeta",
      "url https://files.sovbit.host/media/87e02be9ae3894742a3fedda2e6b33675b642800633ab8c7ac1a306f107ac81c/7c94a5e41035e523fd39928e6b0cca5d399dc37a10c1420d34bb79c7252566bb.webp",
      "x f69908d559bd6c53beb16848dffe4640da08bef9ae3025c67b5c97220ad76217",
      "size 27862",
      "m image/jpeg",
      "dim 640x960",
      "blurhash ^BCZO.M_00bb-=%3?bRjIUf+oexu00xv_4MwE0xu00t7?cIUjZWAt6S4RkxFtRIn%hV@IAtRt7bHROIUxv-;M{RiMyM{xvxvRjITt7ofNFofkCWB",
      "ox 7c94a5e41035e523fd39928e6b0cca5d399dc37a10c1420d34bb79c7252566bb",
      "alt "
    ],
    [
      "imeta",
      "url https://files.sovbit.host/media/87e02be9ae3894742a3fedda2e6b33675b642800633ab8c7ac1a306f107ac81c/77ea4ac8c2d59c4a0e7460ea9c366440f737f6e2d2c865fa3cd5c314b32245a1.webp",
      "x f8136269849d82f8502716bb44b06099e2c6eb0667f06e7260262b168db3ee31",
      "size 160258",
      "m image/jpeg",
      "dim 736x939",
      "blurhash _wHCZTt7oKj[afoff6.Aj]j[j[oLaya#XnWBWVaza}WCj[Ngazayayayj[ayIooLj[oef7jsj[V?oJfQWVoLjta}ozbHj?ayfQa}ayozWWa}j]a#ayf7WrjZazayayj[oe",
      "ox 77ea4ac8c2d59c4a0e7460ea9c366440f737f6e2d2c865fa3cd5c314b32245a1",
      "alt "
    ],
    [
      "imeta",
      "url https://files.sovbit.host/media/87e02be9ae3894742a3fedda2e6b33675b642800633ab8c7ac1a306f107ac81c/7ea19ac0eefbc2aa6d4633abae6af1a48483148b84f155f9bd50363ebe6e007d.webp",
      "x 18775d19675f47e75aa2d406e7a9300e5220a1a530fe6cab3508b6c8555b512b",
      "size 22862",
      "m image/jpeg",
      "dim 541x960",
      "blurhash ]SH.Wr-;4.xte.~q-;-;WBRj%gt7%MNGRj%MM{M{WBof%2IUM{kCof-;M{RPt7kCxtWBWCt7xux]aeWBj@t7t7ayayayay",
      "ox 7ea19ac0eefbc2aa6d4633abae6af1a48483148b84f155f9bd50363ebe6e007d",
      "alt "
    ],
    [
      "imeta",
      "url https://files.sovbit.host/media/87e02be9ae3894742a3fedda2e6b33675b642800633ab8c7ac1a306f107ac81c/5060dec190d473bc1fd72aabe0023bce71dc7c40334828a25da912d01c4cc622.webp",
      "x 2c2b6b139ef4504cb8ceb2e8e4c8587767f9b00c6bf82418505ab027f4db8251",
      "size 23272",
      "m image/jpeg",
      "dim 640x960",
      "blurhash ^PMtgoRlkW%gxvt7_4D%xaj[M|t7-=?cMxRPV@RjD%IUtRWBn$j[M{WARjkDbHof-=xuV@kCbbaxIAM{tRWBjsoftRt7M{ofjsV@j[WCt7oLayf6",
      "ox 5060dec190d473bc1fd72aabe0023bce71dc7c40334828a25da912d01c4cc622",
      "alt "
    ]
  ],
  "content": "阿联酋退出欧佩克\n\n不禁感慨之前卖集装箱船，扫货油船的长锦商船又押对了，油运需求明确增量。\n\n行业深度参与者还是有专属信息优势的，这局外人比不了。\n\n这个退出短期影响不大。\n\n往能绕过海峡封锁的富查伊拉港的管道，日输运设计上限也才180万。\n\n解决不了现有产量出口问题，更满足不了现有30%闲置产能打满后近500万的产能外运。\n\n顶多是战后扯皮时，这段时间靠管道完成的独家份额是否回吐出来，比起独立性，这点量的价值九牛一毛。\n\n中期（战后）对油价回调起加速作用。\n\n毕竟源头实打实量出来了。\n虽然单位时间里依旧受运力限制，但总归少了个堵点。\n\n利好也是有的，但不直接和油相关。\n多在扩产配套的油器设备，油船建造，自保需增的军工，进而扩展上下游的钨，碳纤维等。\n\n这还要看后续阿联酋准备投入多少钱，这个主题概念能不能炒起来。\n\n远期利空油价，同时加大了油价波动性，进而增大资本市场的不确定性和波动性。\n说人话就是，以后更难做了。\n\n其实活久见的背后就是确定性减弱，波动性增强。\n\n世界秩序走到这个阶段，旧秩序如欧佩克趋于瓦解，新秩序遥遥无期。\n\n很多习以为常的便宜会因为不再确定而越来越贵。\n乱是有代价的，全球人民一起买单罢了。 https://files.sovbit.host/media/87e02be9ae3894742a3fedda2e6b33675b642800633ab8c7ac1a306f107ac81c/7c94a5e41035e523fd39928e6b0cca5d399dc37a10c1420d34bb79c7252566bb.webp https://files.sovbit.host/media/87e02be9ae3894742a3fedda2e6b33675b642800633ab8c7ac1a306f107ac81c/77ea4ac8c2d59c4a0e7460ea9c366440f737f6e2d2c865fa3cd5c314b32245a1.webp https://files.sovbit.host/media/87e02be9ae3894742a3fedda2e6b33675b642800633ab8c7ac1a306f107ac81c/7ea19ac0eefbc2aa6d4633abae6af1a48483148b84f155f9bd50363ebe6e007d.webp https://files.sovbit.host/media/87e02be9ae3894742a3fedda2e6b33675b642800633ab8c7ac1a306f107ac81c/5060dec190d473bc1fd72aabe0023bce71dc7c40334828a25da912d01c4cc622.webp",
  "sig": "b5cb70389fcffa9d910220eb8fe0110ad5d3995a9f20ada2f3082d3b81c344ab2d10b8b5b464975ec1da4330e483c2307a3468f067120f18aa4e8a40266143e0"
}