I think I found an unexpected problem with the most liquid B...

2183e94758481d0f...

npub1yxp7j36cfqws7yj0hkfu2mx25308u4zua6ud22zglxp98ayhh96s8c399s

hex

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nevent

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Kind-1 (TextNote)

2026-02-26T19:09:26Z

I think I found an unexpected problem with the most liquid BIP110 prediction market.

https://image.nostr.build/2025d3ab7d0976ce8ec496f467342dd4fb729fa72e0edfdbaffbd125e6005c0c.jpg

It defines the "Yes" condition based on a mix of timestamp ("11:59:59 PM") and blockheight ("the BIP-110 activation point"). But since those are not always in sync on bitcoin, there's a chance that we simply haven't reached that blockheight yet when we reach the timestamp when the measurement is supposed to happen.

In that case, the Yes condition would obtain unexpectedly: if we are only at block 965660 at the timestamp, instead of 965664, then -- at the time of measurement -- there won't be any "blocks that violate BIP-110 constraints" from BIP-110's activation height forward...but only because we haven't reached that blockheight yet.

So a person who thinks BIP110 won't activate might find it reasonable to bet Yes anyway, because even if BIP110 never gets enforced, you can still win if blocks just get slower than we currently expect them to.

Link to the market: https://beta.predyx.com/market/will-bip-110-activate-and-be-enforced-on-bitcoin-by-sept-1-2026-1770282509

Click "Show More" under "Description" to see what I mean.

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  "tags": [
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  "content": "I think I found an unexpected problem with the most liquid BIP110 prediction market.\n\nhttps://image.nostr.build/2025d3ab7d0976ce8ec496f467342dd4fb729fa72e0edfdbaffbd125e6005c0c.jpg\n\nIt defines the \"Yes\" condition based on a mix of timestamp (\"11:59:59 PM\") and blockheight (\"the BIP-110 activation point\"). But since those are not always in sync on bitcoin, there's a chance that we simply haven't reached that blockheight yet when we reach the timestamp when the measurement is supposed to happen.\n\nIn that case, the Yes condition would obtain unexpectedly: if we are only at block 965660 at the timestamp, instead of 965664, then -- at the time of measurement -- there won't be any \"blocks that violate BIP-110 constraints\" from BIP-110's activation height forward...but only because we haven't reached that blockheight yet.\n\nSo a person who thinks BIP110 won't activate might find it reasonable to bet Yes anyway, because even if BIP110 never gets enforced, you can still win if blocks just get slower than we currently expect them to.\n\nLink to the market: https://beta.predyx.com/market/will-bip-110-activate-and-be-enforced-on-bitcoin-by-sept-1-2026-1770282509\n\nClick \"Show More\" under \"Description\" to see what I mean.",
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