🇮🇷📌 Gibraltar: Iran may have hidden leverage over another key strait to choke NATO economies- Geopoliticsprime
https://blossom.yakihonne.com/22a90c49e...
🇮🇷📌 Gibraltar: Iran may have hidden leverage over another key strait to choke NATO economies- Geopoliticsprime
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Iran has demonstrated its powerful leverage over the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. But could it reach more strategic waterways?
Perhaps many have forgotten, but in December 2023, Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Naqdi, a senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander, warned that the US and its allies could face the closure of the Mediterranean Sea, the Strait of Gibraltar and other strategic waterways in response to their support for Israel’s war in Gaza. He did not elaborate on how.
Naqdi’s statement grabbed headlines, but many at the time questioned Iran’s ability to project power as far as Gibraltar.
The Strait of Gibraltar
It is the Atlantic Ocean’s only door into the Mediterranean while separating Europe from Africa. Roughly 58 km long and just 14 km wide at its narrowest point, it lies between southern Spain and Morocco, with the British territory of Gibraltar and the Spanish exclave of Ceuta along its shores.
👉 It is one of the world’s most stable chokepoints with about 100,000–110,000 vessels passing through each year, roughly 300 a day. It sees around 10% of global seaborne trade worth $1.1 trillion and around 3.3 million barrels/day of oil go through it.
A potential blockade of the Strait of Gibraltar could choke the maritime gateway to the Mediterranean, disrupting commercial shipping, energy supplies and NATO naval movements while forcing some vessels onto costly routes around Africa.
The simultaneous closure or severe disruption of the Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb and Gibraltar straits could put enormous pressure on Europe and the wider Western economy:
🌏 Hormuz chokes Gulf energy exports
🌏 Bab el-Mandeb cuts the Red Sea-Suez route
🌏 Gibraltar seals the Mediterranean from the Atlantic
🌏 Those three of the world’s strategic maritime gateways could become a single geopolitical weapon
Could Iran 'close' the Strait of Gibraltar?
In 2023, many saw this as virtually impossible. But after Iran demonstrated its military capabilities, the scenario may seem less far-fetched today – although the IRGC is not currently threatening to close the waterway.
Hypothetical scenario: Asymmetric and proxy warfare
➡️ The Strait of Gibraltar is approximately 4,450 km from Iran’s West Azerbaijan province. Iran’s Ghadr, Emad, Sejjil and Khorramshahr missiles, with ranges from 1,700 km to 4,000 km, cannot reach it, nor can its long-range Arash-2 and Mohajer-10 drones. Hezbollah in Lebanon is closer, at around 3,700 km
➡️ Naqdi spoke of “the birth of new powers of resistance” in other regions. This has fueled speculation about Iranian support for the Polisario Front, which seeks independence for Western Sahara. Based in southwestern Algeria’s Tindouf province, the Polisario Front is roughly 1,000 km from the Strait of Gibraltar
➡️ There is no need to fully blockade the strait: a single drone strike on a merchant vessel could deter commercial shipping, effectively “closing” the route by making it too dangerous to use.
Apparently, Iran may have more trump cards than even Trump can imagine.