If a doomer tells you their guess for P(doom)*, ask them wha...

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Kind-1 (TextNote)

2026-08-19T11:13:39Z

If a doomer tells you their guess for P(doom)*, ask them what their guess for P(saved) is.

https://blossom.laantungir.net/49a9077b67e31ec887433361cd2f9578278029fc4be8db36a1f073c4d879b3e1.jpg

P(saved) is the probability we survive because we have created AI fast enough.

It is interesting to note that almost all examples we have of societies going extinct are because they didn't create enough knowledge fast enough, not that they had too much.

Native American tribes would have been much better off if they had more knowledge about gunpowder and especially smallpox. It was this lack of knowledge that doomed them.

The Greenland Norse needed to know about insulating clothing and how to hunt marine mammals.

The Anasazi about soil conservation.

The Easter Islanders about sustainable forestry.

Given that almost all examples of situations we want to avoid are situations where we don't have enough knowledge, I think this is a strong indication that we need to build AGIs and the new knowledge that comes with them as quickly as possible.

The danger lies in not having the knowledge needed to save ourselves. 

GM

*P(Doom) is the probability that AIs kill us all any given year.

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  "content": "If a doomer tells you their guess for P(doom)*, ask them what their guess for P(saved) is.\n\n\nhttps://blossom.laantungir.net/49a9077b67e31ec887433361cd2f9578278029fc4be8db36a1f073c4d879b3e1.jpg\n\n\nP(saved) is the probability we survive because we have created AI fast enough.\n\n\nIt is interesting to note that almost all examples we have of societies going extinct are because they didn't create enough knowledge fast enough, not that they had too much.\n\n\nNative American tribes would have been much better off if they had more knowledge about gunpowder and especially smallpox. It was this lack of knowledge that doomed them.\n\n\nThe Greenland Norse needed to know about insulating clothing and how to hunt marine mammals.\n\n\nThe Anasazi about soil conservation.\n\n\nThe Easter Islanders about sustainable forestry.\n\n\nGiven that almost all examples of situations we want to avoid are situations where we don't have enough knowledge, I think this is a strong indication that we need to build AGIs and the new knowledge that comes with them as quickly as possible.\n\n\nThe danger lies in not having the knowledge needed to save ourselves. \n\nGM\n\n\n*P(Doom) is the probability that AIs kill us all any given year.",
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